Political drama contd.

Mayawati(40)
So the next PM-in-waiting is Mayawati, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. Right now her chance looks slim but keeping in mind the kind of PMs we got in past, she cannot be written off. Her best chance though seems to be on both sides, I believe it would be very difficult for her to ally with the BJP. Best condition for her would be that UPA falls short of majority by about 60 seats and then she along with left parties can bargain to be the next PM.

Sharad Pawar(10-15)
Surprising that even Sharad Pawar can be a contestent for PM's post with such limited reach. His chance is again much like Mayawati's. UPA should fall by about 50-60 seats and then he can be a compromise PM, provided left parties are willing. His candidature would be taken by the UPA with lesser pinch of salt than of Mayawati.

There are many others who have not come out openly with their candidature but with their past track record we can expect them to be having buried desire of being PM. I discussed this with my friend Saucy and may be we could have any one of them next time.

Political drama

So how many PM-in-waiting are we going to have this time? The pre poll alliances of two major national parties are in disarray. Congress has lost PMK. BJP has lost BJD. And third seems to be congregation of every possible front in India.

Lets look at prospects of our PM-in-waiting.

Manmohan Singh (235) It is very clear Congress will not be able to cross 200 seats in this election. Well, if they cross 150 it would be their best performance since 1991. It all boils down to its allies. They have several of them but stronger of them are in post poll scenario. RJD, LJP and SP are going to bag about 50 seats but they are not in pre poll alliance with Congress. In fact they have made a mockery of Congress during seat sharing talks. Now they are left with the DMK,NCP,TC,JMM etc. who even if they are on their best can't get over 35 seats. Now there lies the catch. Will Congress go to Left parties? Even if they go they will end up losing Trinamool Congress as next year we have assembly elections in West Bengal. 

Lal Krishna Advani(235) Greater troubles plague L K Advani who is not just having problems with allies but infighting (due to Shekhawat, Jaitley and others) assuming alarming height. They dont seem to be getting more than 150 seats either. Their allies SAD, Shiv Sena, JD(U) (at the time of writing they are still with the BJP), INLD, RLD,AGP can be expected to bag 35 seats. However their richer catch lies in post poll scenario. Though it seems unlikely at this point, they can bag TDP, AIADMK, PMK who could be fairly assumed to bag 50 seats. This makes the number to be 235. Now to make up the numbers they need to fall back on BJD and... yes you guessed it right BSP. And then we have our next PM-in-waiting. More about this in  next post.